The available gas supply from Cook Inlet — which electrifies and heats Alaska’s Railbelt — is declining.
Scott Waterman is a retired energy specialist who currently serves on the board of the Renewable Energy Alaska Project — a nonprofit aimed at increasing “clean energy” across the state.
“The Division of Oil and Gas Department of Natural Resources and the Oil and Gas [Conservation] Commission released a report just a couple of weeks ago that says that demand may exceed supplies as soon as 2027,” he said, during a roundtable on the state of Cook Inlet’s natural gas production on KBBI’s Coffee Table on Wednesday.
Waterman said once the most easily accessible gas reserves in Cook Inlet are depleted, Alaska won’t have enough alternatives readily available to replace them in a short period of time.
Erin McKittrick is a Seldovia-based writer and former scientist, who’s been analyzing energy and gas issues for years. She also is a member of the Homer Electric Association board of directors, but was not participating on behalf of the board.
She said the state made an effort to boost natural gas production the last time there was a gas crisis imminent, in 2010, through the Cook Inlet Recovery Act.
“The state basically paid about one-and-a-half-billion dollars of credits to Cook Inlet producers over the time period. I think it ended in 2016. And we've been paying back and still owe over $200 million on those credits,” she said.
A 2015 report from the Alaska Oil and Gas Association said after the legislature took action, oil production increased by 80% across its 16 platforms.
At that time, the report said, “The substantial increase in investment and economic growth on the Kenai Peninsula shows no signs of slowing down.”
However, last month, the Alaska Division of Oil and Gas presented an updated forecast to the Alaska House Finance Committee that tells a different story.
According to the 2022 Cook Inlet Gas Forecast Report, by the state’s Department of Natural Resources, gas production in Cook Inlet is predicted to fall below demand by 2027, assuming demand for that gas stays the same and that there’s no production from currently undeveloped gas prospects.
Geologist and citizen scientist Bretwood Higman of Seldovia said the new report emphasizes the fact that Alaska is only a few years away from needing decisive and effective action — an action that could take many forms.
“Either finding some way to increase supply so that there could be some new source within Cook Inlet, it could be natural gas imports, or we need to reduce our demand," Higman said. "That could be replacing natural gas with other renewable energy. It could also be just improving efficiency and how we use the natural gas we have.”
McKittrick said there would be pros and cons to each solution. For example, relying on other states to accommodate the demand will increase household heating expenses.
“If that price increases, as our gas supply dwindles, and we potentially bring in imported gas, then that's just going to directly pass through onto your bill in that line item and be substantially bigger,” she said.
Higman said utilities like Homer Electric Association and private companies like Renewable IPP are exploring renewable options that could potentially become active producers of energy in a short amount of time.
“That's what I really hope we'll see: that wind and solar being operational soon," he said. "And in the meantime, we need to be exploring geothermal and tidal, we could also talk about things like pumped hydro storage.”
To listen to the full discussion on the state of Cook Inlet’s natural gas production, or read the forecast report, check out KBBI’s Coffee Table discussion from Feb. 22.
The available gas supply from Cook Inlet — which electrifies and heats Alaska’s Railbelt — is declining.
“The Division of Oil and Gas Department of Natural Resources and the Oil and Gas [Conservation] Commission released a report just a couple of weeks ago that says that demand may exceed supplies as soon as 2027,” said Scott Waterman, a retired energy specialist.
Waterman currently serves on the board of the Renewable Energy Alaska Project — a nonprofit aimed at increasing “clean energy” across the state. During a roundtable on Cook Inlet’s natural gas production on KBBI’s Coffee Table on Wednesday, he said once the most easily accessible gas reserves in Cook Inlet are depleted, Alaska won’t have enough alternatives readily available to replace them in a short period of time.
Erin McKittrick, a Seldovia-based writer and former scientist, who’s been analyzing energy and gas issues for years. She also is a member of the Homer Electric Association board of directors, but was not participating on behalf of the board.
She said the state made an effort to boost natural gas production the last time there was a gas crisis imminent, in 2010, through the Cook Inlet Recovery Act.
“The state basically paid about one-and-a-half-billion dollars of credits to Cook Inlet producers over the time period. I think it ended in 2016,” McKittrick said. “And we've been paying back and still owe over $200 million on those credits.”
A 2015 report from the Alaska Oil and Gas Association says after the legislature took action, boosted oil production by 80% across its 16 platforms.
“The substantial increase in investment and economic growth on the Kenai Peninsula shows no signs of slowing down,” the nearly decade-old report says.
However, last month, the Alaska Division of Oil and Gas presented an updated forecast to the Alaska House Finance Committee that tells a different story.
According to the 2022 Cook Inlet Gas Forecast Report, gas production in Cook Inlet will fall below demand by 2027, assuming demand for that gas stays the same and that there’s no production from currently undeveloped gas prospects.
Geologist and citizen scientist Bretwood Higman of Seldovia said the new report emphasizes the fact that Alaska is only a few years away from needing decisive and effective action — an action that could take many forms.
“Either finding some way to increase supply so that there could be some new source within Cook Inlet, it could be natural gas imports, or we need to reduce our demand," Higman said. "That could be replacing natural gas with other renewable energy. It could also be just improving efficiency and how we use the natural gas we have.”
McKittrick, a retired scientist, said there would be pros and cons to each solution. For example, relying on other states to accommodate the demand will increase household heating expenses.
“So if that price increases, as our gas supply dwindles, and we potentially bring in imported gas, then that's just going to directly pass through onto your bill in that line item and be substantially bigger,” she said.
Utilities like Homer Electric Association and private companies like Renewable IPP are exploring renewable options that could potentially become active producers of energy in a short amount of time, according to Higman.
“That's what I really hope we'll see: that wind and solar being operational soon,” he said. “And in the meantime, we need to be exploring geothermal and tidal, we could also talk about things like pumped hydro storage.”
