Global crude oil prices have been volatile over the last few weeks following the U.S. and Israel's attack on Iran. They spiked to nearly $120 a barrel about a week after the war began, and then fell to around $100, where they have been hovering for several days. Before the war, oil was closer to $70 a barrel.
U.S. gasoline prices, on the other hand, have gone in only one direction: Up. And up. And up.
Loading...
Prices at the pump are currently averaging $3.718 a gallon, according to the latest data from the American Automobile Association (AAA), which tracks prices nationwide. That's up nearly 80 cents from a month ago.
Diesel prices, meanwhile, have grown even more sharply. Diesel is just under $5 a gallon, according to AAA, $1.34 higher than last month.
Global oil supplies are experiencing their worst disruption in decades, thanks to a sharp decrease in ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the crucial waterway through which about 20% of the world's oil traffic typically passes, as well as attacks by both sides on critical oil infrastructure.
Prices are still lower than they were in 2022, when Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine sent them soaring.
But they could continue to rise.
"Until we see a meaningful resumption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, upward pressure on fuel prices is likely to persist," Patrick de Haan, the head of petroleum analysis at the app GasBuddy, wrote in a note on Monday. "At the same time, seasonal forces are beginning to intensify as several regions complete the transition to summer gasoline, creating a double headwind that could continue driving pump prices higher in the weeks ahead."
Summer gasoline is a reformulated blend, required by the Clean Air Act, that is less volatile, which leads to less air pollution during the warmer summer months.
Higher gasoline prices put pressure on household budgets, particularly for lower-income Americans. Higher diesel prices have an inflationary impact on nearly all goods in the economy, because diesel is used to power farm equipment, construction equipment, and the trucks, the ships and many of the trains that carry goods around the world.
President Trump has said that while gasoline prices are higher now, they will come down quickly when the war is over. He has also commented that because the U.S. is the world's largest oil producer, "We make a lot of money" when oil prices go up.
Higher oil prices have other economic implications. For one thing, they incentivize companies and countries to invest more heavily in alternatives to oil, like solar power, batteries and EVs, which become more economically competitive when oil becomes more expensive, and offer protection against the volatility of fossil fuel markets. In the long run, that's positive for efforts to fight climate change and air pollution — and negative for oil producers. The oil cartel OPEC actively avoids pushing oil prices too high, in part because of the risk it poses to long-term oil demand.
In an attempt to calm markets, last week the International Energy Agency, an organization representing the world's largest oil consumers, announced its largest-ever release of crude oil from national stockpiles, including 172 million barrels from the United States' Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Still, after that announcement, oil prices continued to rise.
Copyright 2026 NPR
