AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
That's the view from Taiwan, but what about Beijing? We're joined now by Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center. Good morning, and welcome to the show.
YUN SUN: Good morning. Thank you for having me.
RASCOE: So what's China's calculus when it comes to these military drills?
SUN: I think from the Chinese perspective, unless there is a U.S. military intervention, Taiwan's defense capability is not going to be sufficient to counter a Chinese invasion or Chinese gray zone activities. So when China looks at the military drills this year in particular, I think Beijing sees more political messaging or political symbolism rather than an actual mobilization to fight against China, which, from the Chinese perspective, Taiwan alone simply does not have the capability.
So I think Beijing will see this as a calling for Washington to pay more attention to Taiwan's defense need and also pay more attention to the heightened perception of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan in the coming two years in 2027, the famous 2027 window of Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
RASCOE: Well, Beijing's long-standing policy is reunification with Taiwan. If the U.S. is distracted elsewhere, do you think a Chinese invasion of the island is a real possibility?
SUN: Well, there's always a possibility of the Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The question is, what are the conditions that would trigger such an invasion, right? I think, from the Chinese perspective, they have always made it clear they prioritize peaceful unification because it is less costly and also has a higher chance of victory.
Remember, even if U.S. is distracted somewhere else, it does not guarantee that U.S. is not going to step in if China decides to invade Taiwan unprovoked. So U.S. has an obligation. Remember, we have a Taiwan Relations Act. Domestic legislation mandates that the U.S. government will have to supply for Taiwan's self defense.
So the key question is that if U.S. does invade, does China still have a clear chance of success? I think the answer to that question or the uncertainty of the answer to that question is exactly what has kept China at bay, that the Chinese uncertainty about the potential result of such an invasion may not be victorious.
RASCOE: How is Beijing looking at U.S. support for Taiwan at this moment, especially with President Trump right now? You know, he's called for Taiwan to spend more money on its defense. Are they - how do they view that relationship between the U.S. and Taiwan?
SUN: I think from Beijing's perspective, U.S. support of Taiwan is always there, but the degree of the support can vary, right? So in the past - for example, Biden administration - I think the Chinese have perceived a heightened level of support, both diplomatically, rhetorically, politically, in terms of the U.S. policy, as well as in terms of military defense.
But coming to President Trump, I think that is a message of uncertainty received by both Beijing and Taipei because honestly, President Trump has not publicly stated a unequivocal support of Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack of the island. So that sends a message of question, I think, both in Beijing and in Taipei that - what does this mean? What is exactly U.S. policy? Is U.S. commitment to Taiwan still firm? And can we still proceed as before?
I think it does send a potential curious question to Beijing that, well, does this offer us an opportunity? - that maybe U.S. will not step in in the event of a Chinese invasion. So maybe this could be our opportunity for unification. But remember, again, the Chinese will prepare for the military capability, and they will ask the question, and the uncertainty is what keeps them at bay.
RASCOE: That's Yun Sun from the Stimson Center. Thank you so much for being with us.
SUN: Thank you for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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