The past few months of weather forecasts seem to be dominated by one umbrella buzzword - El Niño.
It has to do with the status of a patch of ocean on the other side of the world, about 1,000 miles southeast of Hawaii.
“El Niño is when those water temperatures are warmer than normal,” explained Rick Thoman, an Alaska climate specialist at the University of Alaska Fairbanks.
Thoman said that temperature difference may seem small — we’re talking a degree or two warmer than normal. But even though it’s far away, that slightly warmer water can have a cascading effect on global weather systems.
“The waters in the Pacific Ocean near the equator are so warm that they really impact the weather by really controlling where those giant tropical thunderstorms form and are maintained,” Thoman said.
According to Thoman, over the six El Niño seasons in the past 55 years, there has been no correlation between an El Niño year and the number of strong storms in the Bering Sea. But in those years, there is a tendency for more typhoons to form in the Western Pacific. That’s where Typhoon Halong originated. Those typhoons can spin other places in the ocean.
Thoman said that a number of factors need to fall into place for a Pacific typhoon to impact Western Alaska.
“But if we've got more typhoons, that means we've got more bites at the apple, if you will, to have all the other ingredients come together to bring one of those storms to Alaska,” Thoman said. “Doesn’t mean it will happen.”
Thoman said that an extreme weather event like Typhoon Halong or Typhoon Merbok remains very unlikely, but the recent past has proved that rare events can still happen. Typhoon Halong and Typhoon Merbok were two record-breaking storms that occurred during regular, non-El Niño years.
“It doesn't take quite as much nowadays from a storm in the atmosphere to produce high impacts on the ground, if for no other reason than the ocean levels are higher. And in the [Yukon-Kuskokwim] Delta, that's, of course, extremely important,” Thoman explained. “For any fall season in Western Alaska, we need to be prepared.”
Thoman said that precipitation this winter will likely be lower than normal. That means snow that’s dryer and less fluffy.
“When we talk about precipitation, we're not talking about how much snow you have to brush off your car. We want to know how much water is in the snow that you have to brush off your car,” Thoman said.
Thoman said that the Bering Sea region has been trending toward more winter storms over the past 60 years, but fall storms have not seen a change in frequency. Storms, whenever they come in the year, are having a stronger impact on the region, though. Thoman said that's because of a number of factors.
“Less sea ice, higher sea levels in the Kuskokwim Delta. You've got sinking land from thawing permafrost, so the number of storms are just one factor in what actually winds up impacting people,” Thoman explained.
Thoman said that, as ex-typhoon Halong proved, forecasts and storm tracks can change quickly. He said that even if you checked the forecast two days ago, it might be a good idea to check again.
Stay tuned to KYUK 640AM for alerts and storm preparedness tips throughout the storm season.
