MARY LOUISE KELLY, HOST:
Restrictions along the Strait of Hormuz are expanding. Restrictions which - it's worth reminding - are affecting the global economy in ways we are all seeing and feeling. A U.K.-based maritime organization issued a note to all ships today, letting them know restrictions are being enforced along, quote, "the entirety of the Iranian coastline." This comes after President Trump's announcement yesterday that a U.S. military blockade would go into effect on ships attempting to leave Iranian ports through the strait. For more, we are going to hear from NPR Pentagon correspondent. Hey, Tom.
TOM BOWMAN, BYLINE: Hey, Mary Louise.
KELLY: And NPR international affairs correspondent Jackie Northam. Hi, Jackie.
JACKIE NORTHAM, BYLINE: Hi, Mary Louise.
KELLY: Hey there. OK. So, Tom Bowman, you kick off, get us up to speed. The state of the U.S. blockade at this point is what?
BOWMAN: Well, we don't have any detail, Mary Louise, outside of the announcement of a blockade. That includes maritime traffic entering and exiting ports all along the Iranian coast. And ships that violate this are subject to interception, diversion or capture. Now, two days ago, the U.S. said a couple of U.S. destroyers transited through the Strait of Hormuz to begin the process for clearing Iranian mines. But to do this blockade, it will take more ships, maybe a dozen or more, including minesweepers. But we can also use other means to deal with mines - helicopters that tow these hydrofoil sleds to trigger the mines, also drones and airborne lasers - again, no details.
KELLY: Jackie, just to step back and remind us what would normally be transiting through the strait, why this all matters. Like, what kind of reduction in traffic have we seen so far during the war?
NORTHAM: Well, about 20% of the world's oil and petroleum products transit through the strait or used to before the war. But, you know, it's also a vital passage for important commodities, such as aluminum and fertilizer and helium critical for the production of semiconductors. There are hundreds of oil tankers and container ships that have been idled since Iran effectively closed the strait for more than a month. And only a few vessels with links to Iran or those that have paid a fee have gotten through. And of course, this has had an enormous impact on global supplies and, as you mentioned, the economy.
KELLY: Yeah. Now, Iran has been able to get its oil out while the strait has been closed. So I'm wondering - this new twist, the U.S. blockade, how much havoc could that wreak with Iran's economy?
NORTHAM: Well, the idea behind the blockade is to choke Iran's economy, which is heavily reliant on oil exports. So the blockade could hurt the regime economically. But I spoke with Jack Kennedy, and he's with S&P Global Market Intelligence, and he says Iran has significant amount of oil in floating storage that it can bring to market. Here he is.
JACK KENNEDY: This is going to almost certainly have an impact if the U.S. Navy starts to interdict Iranian tankers or other flag nationalities that are trying to trade with Iran or pick up Iranian oil. But it is going to depend on the extent to which they're able to enforce that.
NORTHAM: And the other thing, Mary Louise, is, you know, the Iranian oil that has got out over the past few weeks has helped keep global supplies up and prices down, relatively speaking. And Iran has threatened to retaliate by attacking the ports and pipelines of Gulf nations, which, of course, would drive the price of oil up significantly. And, you know, and this is just a few months ahead of the midterm elections. So all of this could come down to which side blinks first...
KELLY: Yeah.
NORTHAM: ...The U.S. or Iran.
KELLY: Yeah. A very messy ceasefire is what we're looking at. Tom, it feels worth raising that there are still thousands of U.S. troops in the region.
BOWMAN: Right.
KELLY: What does that tell us about where the war may go?
BOWMAN: Well, you know, it's possible it could - you know, fighting could start again if Iran starts hitting U.S. warships or commercial ships trying to transit through the Strait of Hormuz or attacking the energy sector of Gulf allies. The Iranians have said they have major, untouched levers to pull in response to the blockade, but we don't know what that means.
At this point, it's an economic war - trying to get Iran back to the negotiating table. And a blockade, Mary Louise, of course, is an act of war, and just sorting out which ships leave through the Strait of Hormuz and which ones are barred from leaving will be challenging. Here's retired Admiral William "Fox" Fallon, who once was a top officer at Central Command, which oversees Mid East operations.
WILLIAM FALLON: So there are hundreds and hundreds of ships that are in the Gulf right now. I don't want to put words in the mouth of any of our government folks, but it would seem to me that we'd be pretty happy if a lot of those ships began to move, that were legitimate ships. But there are some number of Iranian vessels. We know that. And there are also some number of the black trade vessels that are sailing under somebody's flag, but they're moving Iranian oil.
BOWMAN: And Admiral Fallon said it's all doable, you know, this blockade. And to be efficient, you'd want to focus on large cargo ships and tankers, of course - those hoping to leave through the strait. The U.S. Navy can just ask them to identify themselves, so Iranian ships don't leave.
NORTHAM: And, Mary Louise, if I could just jump in. Analysts I spoke with say it's unlikely many ships that have been stuck for the past five weeks will be rushing to the Strait of Hormuz. It's just too dangerous.
KELLY: All right. That is NPR's Jackie Northam and Tom Bowman. Thank you both for your reporting.
BOWMAN: You're welcome.
NORTHAM: Thanks very much. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.
