Forecasters from the National Weather Service Alaska Region are predicting colder-than-normal temperatures for the central Kenai Peninsula this winter.
The prediction is driven by weather patterns in the Pacific Ocean. The ocean is currently experiencing warmer El Niño weather conditions, but has been showing patterns of shifting to cooler La Niña conditions over the past several months. Forecasters predict a weak or moderate La Niña cycle this winter.
El Niño and La Niña refer to climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño conditions generally bring warmer weather, while La Niña conditions bring colder weather.
Brian Brettschneider is a climate scientist with the National Weather Service. He says La Niña conditions don’t always indicate cooler temperatures.
“The very warmest winter we’ve had on record in Alaska was a La Niña winter," Brettschneider said. "So, about two-thirds of the time, a La Niña winter will be cooler than normal, but what does that mean? It also means a third of the time, it’s warmer than normal, and while that may seem like ‘Hey, they don’t know what they’re talking about,’ that’s just kind of the way probabilities work.”
Another factor that could make for a colder winter are lower-than-normal sea surface temperatures on Alaska’s coastlines. Brettschneider says this could lead to more snowfall. But, he says it’s difficult to predict how much snow the cooler weather may actually bring.
“Here in Anchorage, we’ve had two really big snow winters in a row, but those are very localized," he said. "Regionally, it was mostly unremarkable for snowfall, so it can be highly variable from place to place. But during La Niña winters, it’s typically a little drier than normal in the southern, coastal parts of the state, but it’s not a very strong signal so I wouldn’t lean too heavily on that.”
It’s too early to tell exactly how cold it will be or how much snow will fall, but the National Weather Service’s predictions are good for gauging trends. To view upcoming forecasts, visit the National Weather Service Alaska Region website.
