National / International News
Steven Shepard of Politico says we can look forward to tons of television advertisements this presidential election season.
“Campaign advertising in 2016 is estimated to top about $4.4 billion," he says. "That combines the advertising run by the campaigns and the candidates themselves, and also the growth of super PACs in the post-Citizens United era. It is $500 million more than was spent in 2012, in the last presidential election."
Even though younger generations use the internet to get most of their information, ads are still primarily focused on television.
Shepard says, "the future might be digital, but the problem is that the advertising hasn’t really caught up with that. The ways in which you can reach people, target them, television …live television is still the best way to do that.”
Television ads are so successful that local news stations are adding more local broadcasts in order to sell more ad space.
“The entire purpose behind that is to create more advertising inventory that they can sell to political campaigns and super PACs,” Shepard says.
This might be good news for television stations, but for those in swing states, this election season is going to be a long one.
“If you live in a swing state or one of the early nominating states … you’re going to get the barrage over the winter, and then you’re going to get it again over the summer and fall,” Shepard says.
Here's some great news and terrible news for the flying public: New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said he's going tear down LaGuardia Airport.
Tear it right down — and rebuild it.
They're going to break ground on the first bit early next year, and it's going to take just more than three years and $4 billion for a new Central Terminal.
Great — eventually. But can you imagine the delays?
The looters came in through the back. They pried open a fence and tore the door off the frame, then stripped the shelves, smashed the ATM and busted open the cash registers.
“I can do nothing,” says Michael Ghebru, who owns Doc’s Liquors in Sandtown-Winchester. The neighborhood was Ground Zero during the April riots in Baltimore, following the death of Freddie Gray. One of the hardest things, says Ghebru, is that he recognized some of his own customers among the 50 or so looters, who tore through his store.
Luwam Gebrab (left) and Ghenet Ghergish at Doc’s LiquorsAmy Scott
Ghebru, who came here from Eritrea, says he lost more than $75,000 worth of liquor and food that night. He has insurance, but if he applied for aid from the city he would be out of luck.
Doc’s is considered a non-conforming liquor store.
“They’re called nonconforming because it’s clear that they’re inconsistent with the neighborhood that they’re in,” says Stephanie Rawlings-Blake, the mayor of Baltimore.
Zoning rules introduced in 1971, banned liquor stores in certain residential areas, but the 100 or so that were already there—like Doc’s—were allowed to stay. Rawlings-Blake’s administration has been pushing to close those stores. When the city offered emergency loans to businesses damaged in the riots, she excluded the 20 nonconforming liquor stores—unless they relocate or start selling something else, like fresh fruits and vegetables.
“I heard from the residents, I heard from business leaders, with a unified voice, that they did not want any city dollars to go towards reopening the nonconforming liquor stores,” Rawlings-Blake says.
One of those residents is Elder Clyde William Harris. He’s lived in Sandtown-Winchester for 65 years, and founded Newborn Holistic Ministries, a group fighting poverty in the neighborhood.
“Any corner where there is a liquor establishment, check those corners out. Hot spots in our community,” he says. “We do not need that.”
What they do need, residents say, are family restaurants and grocery stores. But those businesses can be expensive to start, and difficult to run. Liquor stores are relatively easy to manage and don’t require a big investment. Plus, alcohol has a high profit margin, and there’s a lot of demand.
The owners are often immigrant families from Korea, South Asia, and the Middle East, says Abraham Hurdle, a lawyer who represents several liquor store owners.
“The vast majority of them are small business owners working seven days a week, often, just to put food on the table, put their kids in college—just the same old American dream as everybody else,” he says. “To say they're responsible for all the problems that Baltimore has, it's just plain unfair.”
If only there weren’t so many of these businesses so close together, community activists say. They point to studies showing that high concentrations of liquor stores are associated with more violent crime and health problems.
Debra Furr-Holden is an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. She drives me to the neighborhood of Park Heights in Northwest Baltimore. We pass block after block of boarded-up buildings and empty lots, until we come to a commercial strip with three cell phone stores, a fried chicken joint, and four liquor stores—with another on the corner of the next block.
“That creates a cluster of five liquor stores within a one-block area,” Furr-Holden says.
Doc’s Liquors from the outside.Amy Scott
One sells some groceries. Another has a small bar attached and sells pipes and herbal Viagra. But they have one thing in common. Nearly everything is behind a thick layer of bullet-proof plexiglass.
“So you literally can't touch the products, you can’t browse through the products,” she says. “I just think it's a very dehumanizing way to make purchases.”
Behind the glass at Doc’s Liquors in Sandtown-Winchester, a cashier does a steady business selling sodas and Flamin’ Hot Cheetos. Plenty of booze passes through, too.
Owner Michael Ghebru says he doesn’t feel great about selling liquor to obviously desperate people on a weekday morning, but he says shutting down a few stores won’t change Baltimore.
“The problem is not liquor stores, that I believe,” he says. “Everybody knows the problem.”
It’s the lack of jobs, he says.
In this neighborhood, more than half of working-age people are unemployed. Ghebru plans to stay in business even without help from the city, but stores like his face a longer-term threat. Baltimore is in the midst of its first zoning overhaul in more than 40 years, which could force nonconforming liquor stores to stop selling alcohol.
A barrel of American crude is selling for less than $50 once again; a year ago the price was north of $90.
The bear market for oil production is a reaction to an unexpected glut, Marketplace's Scott Tong says. Last year, when OPEC signaled that it wouldn't cut the U.S. supply, oil producers all over the world kept pumping, he says. U.S. shale oil production keeps going, despite fracking. Saudi Arabia has record levels and Iraq oil is back "in a big way." Iranian could re-enter the market because of the potential lifting of sanctions.
Some analysts think the U.S. won’t see $100 barrels of oil for maybe five years, Tong says. The pessimists include drillers, who are cutting $200 billion in investments to stay afloat. Morgan Stanley likens this to the 1986 oil crash, which took the U.S. industry two decades to recover. Another camp says we’re in a new period of volatility. Before, OPEC was the price shock absorber, but it doesn't want that job any more. So perhaps we’ve entered the boom-bust-boom-bust chamber, he says.
All over the world, oil producers are struggling. In the oil sands area of Canada where it’s expensive to drill, unemployment has doubled and most new projects have been shelved. Venezuela is running out of petroleum revenue dollars to buy imports, which is especially problematic because most of its products are imported. Inflation there is 100 percent or more. Russia’s careening toward recession. In the Gulf of Mexico, drilling rigs have fallen by a thousand, and here in the United States, there have been tens of thousands of layoffs.
Oil producers are addicted to the revenue, but the picture is changing for consumers. According to the international energy agency, demand is slowing in rich countries – western Europe, Japan, the U.S. Even though emerging economies are buying more, demand will slow and eventually flatten out around 2040.
Click on the audio player above to hear more.
It’s not exactly comforting to see the stock market of the world’s second-largest economy take a nose dive. China saw the biggest single-day drop – 8 percent — in its stock market in eight years, following weeks of volatility and decline.
At a time when the U.S. is starting to recover, should we worry? Not particularly, or at least not yet.
First, those feeling most of the pain from China’s stock market are the Chinese.
“China’s financial markets are mostly closed off to those outside the country,” says Nadège Rolland, senior project director for the National Bureau of Asian Research. “So of all the shares in China’s stock market, foreigners own less than 2 percent — by some estimates it’s 1.5 percent.”
One of the many reasons for this is so that the Chinese government can maintain control over its market and do things like threaten to arrest people who sell off shares. Just today, China’s equivalent of the Securities and Exchange Commission has reportedly put started a hotline for reporting “people who are ‘maliciously selling,’” says Patrick Chovanec, chief strategist at Silvercrest Asset Management. “I don’t know what malicious selling is actually, but you can be reported for it.”
The stronger links between the U.S. and China are through trade, not financial markets. Even on that front, however, the effects of China’s economic slowdown on the U.S. are “real, but limited,” says Nicholas Lardy, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. China accounts for “about 7 percent of our exports, and exports are not a really huge chunk of our overall economy, so only about a percentage of our production is getting sold in China.”
“Although people imagine China is a growth driver for the global economy, China has been running chronic trade surpluses, so it really derives growth from other countries,” Chovanec says. “That’s neither good nor bad, that’s just the reality.”
U.S. companies operating in China are experiencing the slowdown differently. Lardy says those like Caterpillar or United Technologies — which are heavily tied to China’s now-waning construction boom — are suffering. Companies that are selling directly to Chinese consumers – YUM brands’ KFC and Pizza Hut, for example – are doing exceedingly well. iPhone sales have surged and Apple expects China to be its largest market in the world within a few years.
“China is attempting to move from an investment-driven to a consumer-driven economy,” says Robert Whitelaw, professor of entrepreneurial finance at NYU’s Stern School of Business. “And it’s not easy to do, because it has been investment-driven for so long.”
But if that’s what rises out of the rubble of China’s growing pains, it may be to the benefit of the U.S., Chovanec says.
“There’s a tendency for people to look at growth as a uniformly positive thing; any growth is good, and any slowdown is bad for global economy,” he says. “But that’s not really the case. A lot of the growth over the past five or six years in China was bad growth — credit-fueled overinvestment, a buildout of overcapacity that pushed down prices around world and made it tough for other economies to grow.”
The end of that process, Chovanec says, will ultimately be a relief for other sectors of global economy. “Ultimately, if the Chinese support consumption, this will ultimately turn China into a driver of growth. A lot of people think China is a driver of growth now; it has the potential to be as it undergoes this economic adjustment.”
It's unusual for a sitting vice president to not be a part of the campaign conversation. One group is urging the vice president to run and holding out hope he hears the call.
Since serving as CEO of the website Myspace, Mike Jones has spent his time as an angel investor. He says, “When I looked at my track record as an angel, I felt that there was this huge discrepancy between the number of investments and the number of successes I had had.”
So naturally, he raised $10 million and started the company Science Inc., which helps startups from the ground up.
We’ll work with you on strategy, product — if you need developers, we’ll provide technology. If you need designers, we’ll provide great design resources. And then when you’re ready, we’ll go bring you up to Silicon Valley. We’ll help you get funded, we’ll join your board and we’ll be with you for the entire length of your company.
What separates Science Inc. from similar companies is its location in L.A., on Silicon Beach:
My primary network is here in L.A. For me, that means that I have great access to talent. I can find great people to come work at these businesses, and we also have strong ties to Silicon Valley, so when we have a break out company, we can pair them with the best investors in Silicon Valley.
Though Science Inc. is located in L.A., the reliance on Silicon Valley is strong:
The weight that Silicon Valley carries in technology, it’s second to none. There’s Silicon Valley and there’s everywhere else. And we might be in the top of the ‘everywhere else’ category, but we’re not even close to the infrastructure that Silicon Valley provides for the technology businesses.
Jones says it’s not about competing with Silicon Valley, but rather making Los Angeles a welcoming place for startups. He thinks that “we need bigger and bigger companies that will create more wealth in Los Angeles, that will provide more returns back to those investors and then create a larger ecosystem of early stage investment.”
The U.S. Olympic Committee had backed Boston over bids from San Francisco, Washington, D.C., and Los Angeles. But the mayor now says Bostonians were "rightly hesitant" to commit to the potential cost.
A Canadian scholar was unimpressed with the cookbooks available for people on food stamps in the U.S. So she decided to come up with her own set of tips and recipes for eating well on $4 a day.
Thousands of residents of the Dominican Republic — many of Haitian descent — have been stripped of citizenship. Facing deportation, they've moved into camps. Now they're living in limbo.
We've heard of Silicon Valley and its New York counterpart, Silicon Alley, but there's a growing group of startups based out of Venice — a.k.a. Silicon Beach. We traveled down there to talk with a few CEOs about the Los Angeles–area tech scene, and we'll be airing those conversations through the rest of the summer. Here's a preview.
Many human rights advocates and U.S. lawmakers say the upgrade has more to do with politics than with the facts on the ground in those countries.